Robben Ford Discussion

[Bluelobster]

I voted no , coz i don't want something unfair for us . I love it , but X'cuz me the only DVD avalaible is an Ohn Flter show from 93 ( very good indeed) in 2003, come on , if i am breaking in the tapers community i will have a lot of things to wank on video wise . You all know how life is silly,
i 've been aware not so far there is a lot of newbees around. You people must know that here in europe (unfortunately not really in france except the wealthy ones with cable) a lot of live robben was aired : like New Morning Paris 2000, ITALIA 2001, A Killer Tiger Walk Tour with Gary Novak oon Drums on Ohn Filter too, not to speak about the last airing of Ford Bros in Cal, and so to speak when i was in Sierra Brewery last august the Bloomfield Tribute were Videotaped for Mr Patrick FORD. So are you going to wait 2 Years to watch this on TV...............
A new DVD but a good and fresh One, or Nothing.

[midc74]

I'd be happy with ANY new official DVD that Robben might release. No matter what the format, band, or style of music.

Who would make the decision to release a new DVD? Maybe if we ALL email that person, letting them know there is a huge demand for new video, it could happen??

/me is sitting in his email client waiting to send one off...

Daved, any ideas?

Thanks,
Patrick

[kirk95]

How many DVDs do you think Robben could sell? How many total Robben fans do you think are out there?

10K, 25K, 50K? Anybody have any numbers?
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[kirk95]

BTW Daved hinted a while back that there was a DVD in the works?

Daved?
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[mayer]

Alright, Cap't, I'll take a shot at this. As the resident advertising and marketing guy, feel free to correct me and to chime in!

Let's take an extremely simple scenario, based on number of shows and attendees per year. Based on the last two years published schedules, let's assume an average of 80 - 100 shows per year, depending on the year and how many Ford Brothers shows, etc he participates in?

Then, based on the typical venue size (other than festivals), let's estimate average per show ticket sales at 500?

We're not estimating total revenue and profit here, which would be more difficult, so at the low end of the range:

80 * 500 = 40k total paying fans annually

High end of range:

100 * 500 = 50k total paying fans annually

Now we need to factor out the repeat show buyers on an annual basis (like me and Elizabeth!!), and since he has a fanatic fan base, I'll assume a 15% discount rate for this, although it may be a little high:

High end = 50k * .85 = 42.5k
Low end = 40k * .85 = 34k

So, based on this very crude analysis, Robben has anywhere from 34 - 42 thousand concert-going fans per year. Keep in mind that many of these may be one-time-only purchasers of tickets and not year-over-year repeat customers, so to speak.

I'll go way out on a limb and speculate that only 25% of those are ardent fans, guitarheads, tonefreaks, and the like that would purchase anything Robben puts out; so:

High end = 50k * .85 * .25 = 10.6k potential hardcore buyers
Low end = 40k * .85 *.25 = 8.5k potential hardcore buyers

The very obvious flaw in this analysis is that it only considers concert-goers as prospective buyers of live DVDs and CDS, but, Imo, that is probably not too far off. You could always add back in another .10 or so to cover non-concert-going fans that would purchase live DVDs.

So, from a revenue and profitabilty perspective, what does that mean? If you assume best case, e.g., that all ardent fans would buy, then you have the numbers above. If you assume a lower discounted rate, plug in your numbers...

What we need to know now, after all the assumptions and calcs above have been corrected and accepted for discussion's sake, is:

What is the break-even number for production of such DVDs/CDs, etc? We all know the sales prices, but I am not familiar with the cost inputs. If someone with more knowledge in that area could chime in, then we could offer a good bracketed bottom-line number up for dialogue.

Any feedback or corrections to the above assumptions?
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